STOCKSDIGEST

THE STOCK EXCHANGE WILL NOT CRASH

2008-07-23T11:41:00.003-07:00

The capital market has been bearish for a while now and investors have seen the value of their investments go down seriously. My esteemed readers would recall that I warned on this blog sometimes in February about the need for people to be careful where they put their money .I had warned then under the caption ‘caveat emptor’ because I noticed that most of the stocks had appreciated beyond their fundamentals. The chips are down now and most investors who bought some of these stocks without considering the fundamentals are now crying because they have lost a lot of money to the market correction.
I am however, confident that the market is not going to crash. In fact the market will pick up again very soon but investors have to be careful this time around. They must look before they leap.
I want to tell you authoritatively and with responsibility that this is the best time to invest in the capital market because most stocks promise superior returns. .This is because stocks with sound fundamentals are not spared out of this price depreciation. How else could one explain GTB’s price @N22 naira? What of Oceanic Bank that has an EPS of close to N2 doing at less than 20 naira.
This is an indication that the good times are here for those who will invest now and wait to reap handsome rewards in future.
Investors who know their onions know that the best time to invest is when prices are down. By this I mean you should buy when others are selling and you should sell when others are buying.

I want to tell you authoritatively that very soon the bears would give way to the bulls very soon.
Keep investing !

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CAVEAT EMPTOR-BUYERS BEWARE

2008-02-29T11:38:00.000-08:00

I have been extremely busy lately with some stuffs and that is why I am just posting today.I would have left what I am about to write till next week but it might be too late by next week.
I feel i should let you know what I feel about the rapid appreciation in price of most stocks on the floor of the exchange for the past two weeks.You would recall that I predicted in my last post that the appreciation in price of most securities will continue this year. I am however of the opinion that the price of some of the stocks that are appreciating rapidly does not justify the increase.A phenomenon which I have chosen to refer to as 'appreciation without fundamentals'.What is a stock like Avon crown caps and container doing at N14 ,Oando @ 200naira in my own opinion is expensive and what of Nigerian wire and cable that is only a strolling distance from my house.This company just opened again for business after it went to sleep for more than a year.Don't forget that the company is not enjoying a monopoly and a price of 12naira is laughable.
Note: The fact that I believe these and many other stocks are expensive does not mean they are not going to appreciate further but I am only saying caveat emptor...Don't get your fingers burnt.

WHERE TO PUT YOUR MONEY IN 2008

2008-01-24T11:11:00.000-08:00

Happy new year to everyone.Year 2007 was a great year for many investors:sophisticated or novice.Not too many people got their fingers burnt last year because of the continuous injection of public funds by pension managers and other institutional investors.This led to the upsurge in the prices of almost all the 300 equities listed on the exchange.This led to increase in the P/E of most stocks and a reduction in their Earnings per share.Most banks also came to the exchange the second time in three years to shore up their capital base.
Having given a brief review of the activities in the capital market,I will now give my advice on where to put your money in year 2008.
The surge in the prices of companies will continue as more and more funds find it way into the capital market.I am, however, confident that the sector that will benefit the most this year is the insurance sector.Most insurance companies will appreciate rapidly this year(the price rally has started)because they now have more money to play with.Do not forget that the Federal government just released the money that was raised by them to meet the new capital base.This is expected to have a positive effect on their financials.Insurance stocks generally will experience a rally in their prices.I will, however , recommend some that I can place my money on:
STACO insurance:This company is managed by a proactive management that is bent on catapulting the company to greater heights.The company is also gearing up to raise more funds on the exchange.If you can quickly take position in this stock before a ban is placed on its price.
AIICO INSURANCE:this company also has a sound management and it just beefed up its capital base.A share reconstruction is likely, to reduce the number of outstanding shares.Expect a price rally in this stock immediately the technical suspension is lifted on its price.
Lassaco insurance; it has the second highest EPS in the industry.Watch out for this stock.
LAW union and international emery insurance are also good stocks that will not disapoint investors this year.
Investors should also put their gaze on the following stocks :Wema bank,Chellarams,UBA,Zenith bank,Access bank,University press as their earnings will improve significantly this year.
I will complete the topic I started last month"investing with dates and with numbers"next week by the grace of God.
Keep investing!

INVESTING WITH DATES AND NUMBERS1

2007-12-30T09:51:00.000-08:00

In this edition , I will be treating two crucial ways of getting the best from your investment decisions.
Investing with numbers has to do with making your investment decision based on the values of some numeric fundamentals.The popular among them are the turnover,Earnings per share(EPS),the price per earnings ratio(P\E),the profit after tax(PAT),no of outstanding shares,etc.I will discuss this numeric fundamentals one after the other.

Turnover:The turnover of a company represents the amount of goods and services sold by a company in a particular year.An increase in the turnover of a company means that the company was able to generate more business in the period under review.A reduction in the turnover of a company means that the company lost some business in the period under review.A reduction in turnover could also be caused by disturbances in the economy such as strikes,political upheavals,etc.An increase in turnover may not translate into an increase in profits of the company if cost of production increased in the year.

Earnings per share;EPS is the ratio of profit after tax of the company and the number of shares in issue.It tells us how much dividend the company is able to pay based on its earnings.An increase in EPS is usually a reflection of increase in profit after tax of the company and it can also occur when shares of a company are reconstructed.A reduction in EPS could result from either a reduction in the PAT or procreation of shares through bonus issues.

Price per earnings ratio:It is the ratio of price to EPS. It tells us how long it will take for an investor to recoup his initial investment.

Profit after tax(PAT):An increase in profit after tax could result from an increase in turnover or a reduction in cost.

Number of outstanding shares in issue: This is the number of shares in issue .The larger the number of shares in issue the lower the EPS and the higher the P|E ratio.Therefore, if two companies with the same profit level but different no of outstanding shares in issue.The company with a lower no of shares will have a lower EPS.

Investing with dates involves making decisions based on dates.The important dates are the 1st ,2nd 3rd ,4th quarter and the date of closure of register of members.One unique attribute of these dates is that they differ across companies .The end of year of AP is December while the end of year of First Bank is March.
This information is readily available on the pages of newspapers and in Annual reports of companies.I will discuss how to profit from these dates and numbers in the next edition.

SETTING INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES

2007-11-20T16:41:00.000-08:00

One of the reasons why people lose money on the stock market is that they do not set investment objectives.Myles Munroe once said:"if the purpose of a thing is not known ,abuse is inevitable".This is the same way with investing on the stock market.If you have not set an objective for investing then you are likely going to fall into error.One of the questions you must ask yourself before you buy any stock is : why am I buying this stock?This is because your objective of investing will determine the kind of stocks you buy and the time you buy it.Here are some of the investment objectives I believe you can set for yourself before you buy any stock.

Regular income(Dividend)If your reason for investing in the capital market is to get dividend and regular income then you should consider stocks of companies that pay dividends regularly to their shareholders .It is advisable to buy these stocks when they are selling at their all time lowest or when you feel the EPS of the company has increased considerably and the price of the company is still low.Another tip for picking stock for regular income is to buy stocks during bearish period i.e when the price of the stock is under priced.

Bonus issues:If your objective of investing is to get bonus issues then you should buy stocks of companies that give out bonus issues regularly.There are some "crazy" companies like Guinness,Guaranty trust ,First Bank ,etc that have demonstrated an unparalleled commitment to shareholders wealth.These companies have it as a policy to give out bonus issues regularly. First Bank and Union Bank have given bonus issues for over 5 years consistently.You should however, note that procreation of shares or additions to shares reduces the ability of the company to pay higher dividends except the company is able to increase the profit of the company significantly.

Capital Appreciation:An investor who has capital appreciation has his objective for investing will do well by investing in under priced stocks or in stocks that have growth prospects.By under priced I do not mean penny stocks only because some stocks are actually not worth more than a penny.The investor will also do well by investing during bearish period and wait for the market to pick up.The EPS and the P/E ratio is very important here .If you know that the EPS of a company is higher than the intrinsic value of the stock, then it might be advisable to buy the stock.I will dwell more on this under "investing with numbers".

Directorship/control:sometimes you find out that the price of a stock is very high and people are still buying into the company.The large volumes and demand might be as a result of the quest of some people to clinch a directorship seat on the board of the company or those whowant to take control of the company.These people are usually ready to buy the stock at a premium because of the prospects or the intrinsic benefits of control.

COMMON MISTAKES INVESTORS MAKE 2

2007-10-12T11:12:00.000-07:00

4.They don't monitor their investment:One of the greatest mistakes an investor can make is not to monitor his investment.Most investors don't put their heart where their treasure is.Some don't even keep receipt of payments to their stockbrokers or tellers used to pay for public offers.They treat their investment with levity.Little wonder some stockbrokers smile to the bank after swindling some careless investors.One way to keep track of your investment is to register for the Trade Alert service offered by the Nigerian Stock Exchange.The Trade 6. Alert is a device that notifies you of any transaction on your CSCS account.It also brings to your notice other vital information such as dates of AGM and other company news.

5.They don't demobilize their share certificates:Another big mistake some investors make is to keep their shareholding in paper or certificate form.Some even laminate it to preserve the quality of the paper.Certificates are not meant to be kept at home.They are meant to be deposited at the Central Securities and Clearing System(CSCS)by your stockbroker.This is aimed at changing it from the paper form to an electronic form.This is because it is only the electronic form that can be traded.

6.They don't trade their shares:I have also observed with keen interest that most investors don't trade their shares.They give different reasons for this. Some say they don't because they don't know when to sell and when to buy while some others say they want to keep for the future.I strongly believe that there is need for you to trade your shares so as to take advantage of price fluctuations on the Stock Exchange.There is no point being sentimental about a stock.

7. They use temporary address:If you go to Universities you will be shocked with the number of dividend warrants and bonus issues that are left unclaimed.They belong to students who have graduated from the university over the years.This account for the huge amounts of unclaimed dividends.It is a very costly mistake to put the address of a place which you know you would soon leave because it could be very difficult to get your mails.If you have made this mistake before,contact the Registrar of the company where you have shares to change your address to a permanent one.

8.They buy names and not fundamentals:One way to quickly spot novice investors is their penchant for 'big names'.They want Guinness stock ,Diamond stock,etc.I am not saying that these companies are not good but most times people buy them because of their past performance when there are better stocks with better prospects and fundamentals selling at a discount.
lest I forget,Japaul and Fidelity offers are in the market.These two stocks have so many things in common:
1.Good and proactive management
2.They were both penny stocks before people discovered their inherent potential.
3.They are very affordable.Japaul is N3.95k while Fidelity Bank is N8.These stocks are good buys.
Avail yourself of these offers and share in the wealth of Nigeria!

COMMON MISTAKES INVESTORS MAKE 1

2007-09-21T16:13:00.000-07:00

I would like to apologize to my esteem readers for not posting stuffs for a while now. It was due to some circumstances beyond my control.I am now back to feed you with more stuffs on how to make money from shares.
Today's post is dedicated to exposing my dear readers to some of the mistakes investors make.I will be talking about four this week and I will conclude later.
The four common mistakes are:
1.They do not read Prospectus:A prospectus is a document produced by a company that wants to sell shares to the public.I have observed with huge disappointment over the last five years as an active observer of the Nigerian capital market that most investors do not read prospectus of companies they invest in.They just fill out the forms at the back of the prospectus and then drop it with their monies either to their broker or at a bank.While it is true that that the projections in the prospectus is just an estimate and may not come true,we must understand that we would be doing ourselves a lot of good by perusing prospectus.I know the non reading of prospectus is a reflection of the poor reading culture of most Africans.We must however make up our minds to read so that we can be better informed.

2.They do not attend annual general meetings.:It is at the annual general meeetings that directors present the annual reports of the company and all other reports to investors and the general public.They also tell shareholders and the general public their plans for the future.Investors who know their onions do not joke with annual general meeetings because they know that it is always revealing.As a corollary to this mistake is the fact that most shareholders do not read annual reports of their company.Annual report contains the financials of a company ,the Chairman's speech and some other vital information.The future performance of the company can be predicted from the annual reports.So,the next time you get your annual report make sure you read it

3.They do not set investment objectives:There are so many shares you ought not to have bought if you had set an investment objective for yourself.Investment objectives has to do with why you are investing in a company.Each time you want to purchase a stock ask yourself this question:Why am I buying this company's shares,is it for regular income,bonus issues or capital appreciation?I will discuss how to set investment objectives in greater detail on this blog later.
Less I forget, make sure you buy the Dangote Flour offer for sale that is currently in the market. I consider the offer price of N15 a good discount.It is one of the surest ways of making over 100% capital appreciation in less than 6 months.I can predict with the precision of a watchmaker that the price at the end of the public offer cannot be less than N32 .It is one of the ways of sharing in the wealth of Nigeria and a privilege to share ownership of the company with one of Africa"s greatest entrepreneur-Alhaji Aliko Dangote
Be wise.

I STRONGLY RECOMMEND ACCESS BANK SHARES

2007-08-10T04:05:00.000-07:00

Access Bank is currently doing its public offer and I feel it will be very nice if I tell you what I feel about it.If you are a regular reader of this blog you would have learnt under 'stockpicking tips'why you should buy Access Bank shares.In case you have not,let me tell you some of the reasons why I believe that Access Bank shares will make you rich:
1)Owner management
2)Access bank has a proactive and aggressive management that will continue to surpasss the expectations of shareholders and all other stakeholders.
3)The offer price is at a discount.The price after the public offer cannot be less than N25.
Be wise!

PROTECTION AVAILABLE TO INVESTORS

2007-08-03T10:27:00.000-07:00

PROTECTION AVAILABLE TO INVESTORS
One of the safest forms of investment is investment in shares and securities. This is because there is adequate protection available for shareholders. If your share certificate is stolen, it can be retrieved. Therefore, there is no cause for alarm. The Nigerian stock exchange, the securities and exchange commission, and other regulatory authorities also have in place several sanctions to discipline any erring stockbrokers, who carry out unauthorized trading on your shares and those who engage in unwholesome act.
An investor must, however, ensure that he patronises only registered stockbrokers because the regulatory authorities only have the right to discipline their members. There are also some numbers to call to confirm your shareholding at the central securities and clearing system if you are unsure of your investment.
There is also the trade alert system which informs an investor of any transaction on his investment. This will help him to easily discover if his broker wants to play a fast one on him.
I will also advise you to open a file where you will keep all your documents: receipts, purchase and sales contract note. This is because you may need it as evidence. For instance, there are many cases of non receipt of share certificates. This can be easily traced if you have a receipt, which is an evidence of payment. If you cannot find it, you may have to say goodbye to your investment.
Be wise!

WHERE TO GET MONEY TO INVEST

2007-07-28T03:35:00.000-07:00

SAVINGS
This is an age long principle of building wealth. Anyone who is desirous of achieving financial independence must not treat it with levity. The book of proverbs has this to say about savings. A wise man saves what he would need but a fool spends it all." You need money to buy shares, so save! Experts recommend that 10% of what you earn should be saved. I have said earlier on that you do not have to have hundreds of thousands before you start investing in shares you can get started with as little as five thousand naira (5,000). Stop keeping your money in a savings account, where the rate of return is poor, except it is for a target. Please don’t tell Tony Elumelu and Jim Ovia that I told you. Be wise!
SOFT LOAN AT WORKPLACE
It is quite unfortunate that most people who take salary advance and loans at their workplace only use it to acquire liabilities, like a car, or to meet an urgent need. You can however, decide to take advantage of the salary advance or the I owe you (IOU) at your workplace to invest in the capital market, when prices are down, so as to take advantage of capital appreciation. You must however, have a good knowledge of the capital market before you invest in shares.
Your could also use loans from cooperative to buy shares instead of using it to acquire liabilities.
SHARE PURCHASE SCHEMES/TRADING FACILITY
Some banks now have special facilities for those who want to invest in shares. This is usually backed by a collateral. Some stock broking firms also give some of their reliable clients credit to purchase shares on which a little interest in charged. Contact your broker or your bank for more information on this.
SALES OF ASSET
This is strictly for matured investors. A wise investor can also sell some of his idle assets such as abandoned cars and some other depreciating assets. The proceeds can then be invested in shares. This is because sometimes people keep depreciating assets that they do not have plans for unprofitable assets can also be disposed of.
LOAN FROM COMMERCIAL BANKS
This is strictly for matured and sophisticated investors who are skilled in the art of speculation. This is because loans from banks attract interest rate. There are so many people that are already doing it. but you have to be very smart so as to beat the interest rate and still make some gains for yourself. This could be done successfully during bearish period when people are selling their shares and prices are falling rapidly. An investor would just take position and wait for the bearish period to be over. An investor can also take advantage of this facility when prices of some stocks are unnecessarily low. The investor must however be sure that the fundamentals are right, before he commits his money. For instance, if you had borrowed a loan of N18million to purchase 1 million units of Dangote sugar refinery during the offer for sale in December 2006. Your investment is worth N38million as at May 22nd, 2007, assuming the interest rate is 30%, you will still have 70% to yourself.
This strategy is called making money from other peoples’ money (OPM)
Be Wise!

PROFITING FROM STOCK TRADING

2007-07-18T02:28:00.000-07:00

PROFITING FROM STOCK TRADING
"To buy stocks and keep is folly" - Chief Akintunde Asalu, Chairman, Nigeria Shareholders’ Solidarity Association. (NSSA)
The key to profiting from stock trading is to know when to buy and when to sell. This is because the timing of investment is a very important decision.
An investor who wants to profit optimally from stock trading must be one who is knowledgeable and current. This is because the stock market thrives on information. Therefore, anybody who wants to trade in stock successfully must keep abreast of happenings in the business world. One way to do this is to read business books and financial magazines to know the latest happenings around. You would soon learn why I said so, because policy shifts and decision in the business world affect the market. The ability of an investors to correctly interpret some of these happenings will determine the extent to which he will profit from the capital market. An investor who wants to profit optimally from his investments would also do well by attending financial seminars organized by active investors.
You would recall from the previous edition that prices are determined through the interplay of demand and supply forces (Market Forces). There are however, some factors which lead to a change in price of stocks and equities. I call them drivers of stock prices. They are explained below:
Drivers of Stock Prices
- Government Policies
- Interest rate and monetary policies
- Company news
- Politics
- Price of other Stocks

GOVERNMENT POLICES
A change in government policy in favour of a particular sector of the economy will lead to the increase in the price of stocks in that sector, all other things being equal. The change in government policy could be a ban on importation of the product the company is producing. It could also be a change in policy For instance, the pension reform has led to the injection of more funds into the capital market. This has led to an increase in the price of most equities. An unfavourable government policy will have the opposite effect on the prices of those companies. This is because a change in government policy will affect the bottom line of the company.

INTEREST RATE AND MONETARY POLICIES
A change in interest can also affect the price of equities. This is because money flow to where it can get the highest returns. Investors will put their money where they can get the highest rate of return. A reduction in interest rate from 5% to 2% will reduce the number of people who invest in money market instruments which attracts a lower interest rate. This people would go to the capital market in search of higher returns. This will have a positive or negative effect on prices of listed equities, depending on whether the change in interest rate is positive or negative.
COMPANY NEWS
Information about a company also affects the price of the company shares. The information could either be positive or negative. If the information about the company is positive the price of the company has no other place to go than up. If the information is negative and will affect the future of the company, then the price of the stock will come down. For instance, the discovery of overstatement of account by Cadbury Plc led to a price depreciation from over N60 to less than N40. The following are positive news that will likely lead to an increase in the price of a stock.
(a) Increase in the turnover of the company: An increase in the turnover of a company indicates that the company has been able to generate more business. An investor must however, be sure that the increase is not as a result of inflation.
(b) Increase in the profit after tax of a company: This will most likely result in an increase in the dividends payable to shareholders.
(c) Cost reduction efforts on the part of the company: A change in the processes of an organization from labour intensive to capital intensive is a positive signal that the financial of the company will improve in the future.
(d) Innovations and Inventions: A company that keeps on innovating and bringing out new products could be heading for the top. A company that advertises frequently should also be watched closely because the company might be planning something.
(e) Dividend and Bonus: An expectation of increase in dividend or declaration of bonus by a company will all other things being equal lead to an increase in price.
POLITICS, WAR AND DISASTERS IN NA INDUSTRY
A disaster or crises in a particular sector will lead to a reduction in the prices of stocks of that sector. For instance, price of Agricultural companies during outbreak of diseases such as bird flu.
PRICE OF OTHER STOCKS
The price of other stocks of the same sector could also determine the direction of the price of a company. If the price of WAPCO Cement is increasing rapidly, the price of will likely follow suit, if they have similar fundamentals.
Now that we have discussed the drivers of equity price or what determines the price of stocks, I will now recommend when to buy and when to sell. Let me however, point a caveat that sometimes these advice might not work like you want but make sure the fundamentals of the stocks you choose are right, so that even if the outcome is not what you expect, you will still have a safe landing.
Enjoy your Reading:

WHEN TO BUY
- When government policy will favour a particular industry.
- Favourable company news.
- When a company is gearing up for the market
- After a public offer.
- Before the end of a financial year.
- After the end of a financial year.
- When the prices of stocks in the same industry are appreciating rapidly
- Bearish Period.
FAVOURABLE GOVERNMENT POLICY
A company that operates in an industry that is going to benefit from a favourable government policy is a good stock to pick. This is because the change in government policy will reflect in the bottom line of the company. Although the increase in the bottom line might not be immediate, it will not doubt reflect in no distant future. For instance, a ban on the importation of essential commodities like cement, sugar and other consumer goods will stimulate local demand, with the local industries manufacturing the commodities being the ultimate beneficiary.
The way to profit from this is to analyse any change in government policy and the likely benefiaries, then choose the stock of the companies that will benefit from it. for instance, the recent ban on individual printing of cheques led to an increase in the price of the shares of one of the companies that won the contract to produce the cheques for all the twenty-five banks. The company in question is Tripple Gee. The company shares were trading for less than N1 before the new Central Bank policy and rose to N7. An investor who bought at N1 made a capital appreciation of 600%
FAVOURABLE COMPANY NEWS
This will have a positive effect on the price of the company. Such news includes, increases in turnover, increases in profit after tax, restructing, acquisition prospects or merger, introduction of new products, a proactive new management etc. It is also not all bad news that will affect the company adversely. Some could be for a short period. If it is for a short period, it could be your opportunity to buy the stock at a discount.
WHEN A COMPANY IS GEARING UP FOR THE PRIMARY MARKET
One of the best periods to buy stock of a company is when the company is preparing to hit the market for fresh funds. This is because the company in question will be releasing all the positive information that could drive the price of the stock up. Some company boards also manipulate the price of their shares so that they will be able to raise a lot of funds with few numbers of shares.
To benefits from this, an investor should act promptly whenever he hears that a company wants to raise funds. The investor should however, not ignore the stock picking tips that I have discussed before. He must make sure the fundamentals of the company are alright before he invests in the company. One of the reasons why it is advisable to buy stocks of companies that are in the market to raise funds is that the company’s level of performance, in terms of turnover, profit etc will not remain the same after the injection of more funds. For instance, First bank Plc is expected to net about N20billion naira after tax profit at the end of this financial year. The company is also in the market to raise N100 billion. A wise investor will know that the bank’s profit can never remain at the same level again, because if the bank could make N20billion profit with a share holders fund of N60billion then the profit after tax of the company after the public offer should be in the region of 40-50billion naira.
AFTER A PUBLIC OFFER/RIGHTS ISSUE
An investor, who misses the opportunity to invest before or during a public offer, can do so immediately the stock is listed, so as to take advantage of capital appreciation. This is because, a good company share price will rise above the price at which it was sold and will likely remain above the offer price. If you are not able to buy immediately, you can buy when you notice that the price has started coming down, especially when people have started receiving their share certificates. This is because some new investors will want to take profit by selling their shares, if they notice that the price is abnormally high. If this persists, the price of the company will come down and it might be the appropriate time to buy.
BEFORE THE END OF THE FINANCIAL YEAR
This is very advisable especially when the company is expected to give bonus or an increased dividend. This is because most blue chip companies are predictable, some give bonus issues regularly and some give every two years. If you notice that a company is likely to do a bonus in the current year, it is not a bad idea to position for it.
AFTER THE END OF THE FINANCIAL YEAR
One of the best periods of buying shares could be at the end of the financial year, especially after the closure of register. This is because it will take another full year before investors in the companies get any goodies from the company, except for companies that pay quarterly or half year dividend, such as Dangote sugar refinery and Guaranty Trust Bank. This is because the price of the company will likely come down, because some investors will want to move their investments to other companies that have not closed their registers. However, the price of the stock might not come down after the end of the financial year, it might indeed increase rapidly, especially if the 1st quarter results of the company shows significant improvements in earnings. Whichever way, this is one of the best periods to buy.
WHEN THE PRICES OF STOCKS IN THE SAME INDUSTRY ARE APPRECIATING RAPIDLY
A surge in the prices of stocks in the same industry will later spread to the other stocks in the sector that have not "Caught the Fire." This is because these companies would be considered cheap, especially if the other stocks have reached their peak. You must however, do your research to ensure that everything is alright with the company before you invest in it. This is because the price could be a reflection of happenings in the company.

BEARISH PERIOD
A bearish period is a period when the prices of stocks are coming down.
This is how to benefit from it. if the fundamentals of the company is good, you can enter the market in batches. I did it in 2004 and I am always happy whenever I check the price of the stocks I bought then. Their prices have appreciated tremendously, some by 500%. Do not forget the rule here: Check the fundamentals.
WHEN TO SELL
‘To buy shares and keep is folly’
I agree with Chief Akintunde Asalu that to buy shares and keep is folly. One of the reasons why you must not do this is because sometimes the price of a stock appreciates to a level that its fundamentals cannot support, and if this happens, the price has no other place to go than down. A wise investor will sell when he feels the stock has risen to that level. A smart investor will not be greedy; he will sell when he thinks he has achieved his price target. This is because greed might make you think that the price of the company will be going up and instead of exiting the stock, when you have reaped some modest appreciation, you keep on thinking it will continue to go up. Before you know it, the party might be over. If you reap all the capital appreciation, what will others enjoy? Don’t be greedy.
I present below guides on when to sell some:
UNFAVOURABLE GOVERNMENT POLICY
An unfavourable government policy will affect the price of stock in the industry that is most likely to be at disadvantage. You should however, watch out for ways by which the management of the company is trying to solve the problem. If the management is helpless, it might be in your best interest to exit the stock, and move to a more profitable one before every body does.
UNFAVOURABLE COMPANY NEWS
This information should be analyzed very carefully, before you take your decision. This is because, the retrogression in profit or a decline in performance might be temporary. If you are sure it is temporary, don’t exit the stock. But if it is likely going to affect the future performance of the company, then exit the company.
AFTER THE END OF THE FINANCIAL YEAR
A significant improvement in the financials of a company will likely attract more investors. They will do this and the price will rise rapidly if dividend and bonus have been paid, and the price is still high, it might be the time to sell and move to another stock, or wait till the price comes down, so that you can increase your shareholding in the company.

BULLISH PERIOD
This is a time when prices of stocks are rising rapidly. It could be as a result of a change in government policy. For instance, substantial amounts of pension funds have been invested in the capital market. This has increased the level of activity in the capital market. You can sell when prices are rising rapidly especially when you know that the fundamentals of the stock cannot support such appreciation. It is however, advisable to take profit in batches, that is, you sell in parts, so that if the price appreciates more, you can sell the balance.

PRICING OF STOCKS

2007-06-15T10:13:00.000-07:00

"The best investment in the world is a lousy investment if you pay too much for it".
One of the most important things an investor must consider before he makes an investment decision is the price of the company.It is not the company that matters most,but the price at which you buy.This is because the price of the stock may not reflect the underlying realities of the company That is, a company may be underpriced or overpriced.
A stock is said to be overpriced when the price of the shares is higher than the underlying realities of the company.While a stock is said to be underpriced when the price of the company is lower than the potentials of the company.
This could be as a result of so many factors.It could be as a result of inadequate information about the company ,and a host of other factors.
The smartest way to make money from shares is to buy shares when prices are low and to sell when prices are high.For instance,an investor who bought a stock when it was selling at the lowest price will be better than an investor ,who bought the same stock at the all time highest.
HOW ARE PRICES DETERMINED
Price of stocks on the floor of the exchange are determined through the interplay of demand and supply forces.Price of stocks changes daily on the floor of the exchange.A stock that apreciates today may depreciates tommorow.A stock is said to appreciate when the price of the stock increases, while a stock is said to depreciates when the price of the stock falls.
It is, however,important to note that the fact that the price of a stock is depreciating does not mean the company is in trouble.It might be your own golden opportunity to reap huge and superb returns in the form of capital appreciation.Also, the fact that the price of a company is appreciating rapidly does not mean that the appreciation in price will continue forever.It might be your unique opportunity to exit the stock and move to an underpriced one.This is because the price of the stock might still come down,especially if the underlying realities of the comany does not support the increase in price.
Be wise!

TIPS FOR PICKING PROFITABLE STOCKS 2

2007-06-05T09:14:00.000-07:00

THE HISTORY OF THE COMPANY AND PAST PERFORMANCE
A prospective investor in a company will do well by checking the dividend and bonus history of the company He wants to invest in.This is because the future of a company can be predicted from its past.All this can be found in Annual reports of companies.Past performance is however, not a guarantee for future performance.

THE TYPE OF MARKET THE COMPANY OPERATES IN

Is the company the market leader?How often do people purchase the company's product? Does the company have too many competitors?Is the product of the company a necessity or does it have a close substitutes?These are some of the questions you must ask yourself before you take your investment decision.For instance,companies whose products are necessities will be a good buy any day.Products like Sugar, Salt,Cement and some other essential goods are few examples.
I will now move over to the Quantitative tips of picking profitable stocks.Enjoy your reading.
QUANTITATIVE TIPS FOR PICKING PROFITABLE STOCKS
These are Mathematical/Accounting ratios.We have so many of them.But I will dwell on a few that are frequently used in financial journals and Newspapers.These ratios are very simple to understand.They are:
A.Earnings per share EPS
Earnings per share is calculated by dividing the profit after tax of a company by the number of shares in issue.The rule here is this:The higher the EPS the better the stock.A company with EPS OF N6 is better than another company with an EPS of N3 .This information can be found in Financial Newspapers like Stockswatch,Financial Standard, Money wise,e.t.c.
BPrice per Earnings P/E
The price per earnings ratio is derived by dividing the price of the stock by the earnings per share of the company.This is a very important ratio, because it indicates the number of years it will take before you recoup your investment.The lower the p/e ratio,the better the stock.That is, the lower the number of years it will take to recoup your investment.A stock with a p/e ratio of 5 is better than another stock with a p/e of 10.I will discuss this in greater detail later under 'pricing of securities'.
DIVIDEND PER SHARE/DIVIDEND YIELD

The dividend paid by a company is very important.This is because ,a stock of N50 per share may pay a dividend of N1 per share while another stock of N25 may pay 80kobo per share.I need not tell you which of the two companies is the most profitable.
Dividend yield is calculated by dividing the amount of dividend paid by the price of the stock.The higher the dividend yield the better the stock.Stockbrokers and Investment analyst recommend stocks whose dividends yield is 5% or more.Any stock below this is not advisable.However,you will learn later on this blog under "when to buy and when to sell' that you can still buy when the dividend yield is below 5%
A Combination of these tips will help you to make the best investment decision from time to time.
Good luck!

TIPS FOR PICKING PROFITABLE STOCKS 1

2007-05-25T07:13:00.000-07:00

Stock selection could be a difficult task for most people.One of the most frequents questions people ask me ,is how to choose the best stocks.You will find bellow tips on how to select the most profitable stocks,whenever you want to make your investment decision.
For convenience,I have divided the stock picking tips into two broad categories;Qualitative and Quantitative.Enjoy your reading.
The
QUALITATIVE TIPS

MANAGEMENT
One of the major things you must consider before buying shares of a company,is the company's management.This is because human resoure is the most important factor of production.He organises the other factors of production,and he determines the success of the organisation or otherwise.
The importance of good management in the life of an organisation cannot be over emphasized.A good management will continue to surpass the expectations of stakeholders from time to time.History is replete with stories of turnaround of organisations by some management.We also have situations, where flourishing organisations have gone under, because of an ineffficient management.The CEO and other board members are very key in the life of an organisation.Their commmitment to shareholders' wealth is very important.The management of Companies like,Guaranty Trust Bank, Guinness plc and First Bank have demonstrated un-parralled commitment to Shareholders' wealth.The followimg are things you should find out about the company's management before you part with your money.
Companies where the owners are the managers
One way to make huge fortunes fom the capital market,is to invest in stocks,where the owners are managers.That is, a company where the CEO and other principal officers of the company own substantial amount of shares in the company,especially companies where the founder is the CEO or Chairman.For instance,a company like Guaranty Trust Bank where the the MD/CEO,Mr.Tayo Aderiokun,has over 300million shares,will continue to surpass stakeholders expectations.This is becuse He will continue to strive to make the company better, because as the company is improving, his fortune is also improving.This information can be found in Annual reports of companies.
The antecedent of the diretors.
What companies have they managed before?What are their antecedents?These are some of the questions you must find answers to before you part with your money.The likes of Mr.Felix Ohiweri, Chief Olusegun Osunkeye,Chairman of Nestle have written thier names in gold in this respect.
Timely release of information;
How promptly do they communicate with shareholders? Do they keep Shareholders abreast of happenings in their organisation? .These are some of the questions you must have answers to.This is because some management don't care about the shareholders' so to speak

BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN SHARES 2

2007-05-24T03:47:00.000-07:00

LIQUIDITY
Shares affford liquidity.They can be easily bought and sold.It takes only T+3 days to perfect a transaction on the floor of the Nigerian exchange.Where 'T' represents the day of transaction.This means that an investor can invest or divest from a company within a week.

COLLATERAL FOR LOAN
Shares of quoted companies are one of the most acceptable form of collateral to secure loans and advances by financial institutions.An investor's CSCS statement can be accepted as a collateral for loans and advances.
POTENTIAL DIRECTORSHIP OF A PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
Becoming the director of a public limited company is not the exclusive preserve of only those who start the company.All a prospective director needs to do is to acquire a certain percentage of the company shares(this varies from one company to another).An investor,who desires to become a director of a PLC. could also check the Articles and Memorandum of Asssociation of the company of his choice for the procedure of becoming a director.
There are so many benefits atttached to being a director of a company.Directors get emouluments for their service,and they also get all the other benefits,they deserve as an investor.
If you can, try to be one!

AUDIT COMMITTEE MEMBER
Shareholders are also eligible to be Audit commitee members.Audit commmitee members look into the acccounts presented by the company.They also get paid for rendering this service,in addition to other benefits due to them.

CONFIDENTIALITY
An investor, who does not want people to know of his interest in a company ,will find shares plesant.This is because unless you tell people about your shareholding in a company.They might never find out.

TRANSFERABILITY AND DIVISIBILITY
Shares can easily be transfered from one person to another.Parents could pass shares as inheritance to their children.This is a way of securing the financial future of such children.

VOTING RIGHT
Shareholders have a say in the affairs of the company.One of the ways they express themselves is by voting at the Annual and Extra-ordinary general meetings of the company .The board of directors needs the ratification of shareholders, before any major decision is taken.For instance,shareholders must give their consent before a company embarks on a public offer or a right isssue.They also have the rights to sack errring directors.They do this by exercising their voting right.

MINIMAL START-UP CAPITAL REQUIRED
Most profitable investments require the commmitment of huge sums of money.This is not the case with shares.A Person can start investing in shares ,with as little as Five thousand naira and watch his investment grow.What are you waiting for?

PRESTIGE AND PEACE OF MIND
Having shares also elicits some form of satisfaction.An investor ,who sees the price of his stock appreciating will be happy.Another investor,who sees a product of his company may say to himself,'I am a part owner of that company'.It could also give an investor peace of mind ,because he knows he has something to fall on in case of an emergency.
Wouldn't you rather buy shares?
The next thing I will discuss on this blog is how to pick profitable stocks.

BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN SHARES 1

2007-05-23T06:23:00.000-07:00

There are so many reasons why you should invest in the capital market .I will explain them below.

DIVIDEND
This is a slice of the profit that is made by a company.This profit is shared among the owners of the company at the end of every financial year.Dividends are given according to the number of shares an investor has in the company.

BONUS ISSUES
These are shares that are given free of charge to shareholders,according to the proportion of ownership in the company.Bonus issues rank equally in all respects with existing shares of the company.This increases the number of shares an investor has in the company.
The way to profit from bonus issues given by companies is to buy shares of companies, whose management give out bonus issues regularly.For instance,an investor who bought 10,000 units of Union bank shares in 2003 now has 25,073 units shares in the company.This is because Union bank gave a bonus of 1 for 3 , for three consecutive years,and a bonus of 1 for 10 in 2006.

CAPITAL APPRECIATION
One of the major reasons why you should invest in the capital market is, capital appreciation.A stock is said to appreciate,when the price is above the purchase cost.The Nigerian stock exchange offers superb capital appreciation prospects.For instance, an investor who bought 100,000naira worth of Zenith bank shares now has investment worth over 450,000naira in the company.This is because the stock has appreciated by over 3000%.
The key to making money through capital appreciation is to buy stocks that have growth prospects.By this I mean you should buy low and sell high.I will discuss this in greater detail later.

BUYING SHARES THROUGH THE SECONDARY MARKET

2007-05-21T08:02:00.000-07:00

The secondary market is similar to other traditional market in some respects.It is the market for existing securities.It is the market where shares are bought and sold.An investor needs the service of a stockbroker to buy shares through the secondary market.Stockbrokers are intermediaries between buyers and sellers.They are the only people who are are authorised to buy and sell shares on the secondary market.The secondary market is the floor of the stock exchange.It is the place where trading is carried out.
The procedure for buying shares from the secondary marketis very simple.It is explained thus:
STEP1:Collect a CSCS account opening form from a licensed stockbroker of your choice.
STEP2:Fill in the neccessary details and return to your broker.
You can start buying shares after a CSCS account has been opened in your name

BUYING SHARES THROUGH THE PRIMARY MARKET

2007-05-21T07:33:00.000-07:00

The primary market is the market where companies seeking for fresh funds for the first time access.These companies usually spend a lot of money on advertisement both in the print and electronic media to woo people to buy shares in their company.It could be an Initial public offering ,Offer for sale, Private placement,rights issue.t.c
An investor who buys shares through the primary market is issued a share certificate.A share certificate is a proof of ownership in a company,though we now have e-IPO .e-IPO is a recent development.An investor who chooses the option of the e-IPO will have his CSCS account credited directly with the number of shares he purchases on the primary market.This will save the investor of the stress of demobilizing his share certificate.
One of the unique features of buying shares through the primary market is that it is commision free.All a prospective investor needs to do is to collect a prospectus from his stockbroker or any bank close to him.He will then fill out the form and submit it to his broker or banker with the amount of money for the number of units he applies for,period.

INTRODUCTION TO SHARES

2007-05-16T06:59:00.000-07:00

Shares are units of ownership in a company .They are the small units into which the capital of a company is divided into.A person who has shares in a company is called a shareholder of the company.For instance,people who have shares in Guaranty trust bank plc. are shareholdes of the bank.Shareholders get a slice of the profit that is made by the company where they have shares.They are also entitled to some other benefits.

HOW TO BUY SHARES
A prospective investor can buy shares either though the primary market or through the secondary market.The primary market is the market for new issues of securities.Companies that are seeking for fresh funds from the capital market do so through the primary market.The secondary market is the market for existing securities.It is the market where shares are traded.